According to Robin Farley, a leisure and gaming industry analyst at UBS, Royal Caribbean could be positioning themselves for the ordering of a fourth Oasis Class ship.

RCCL has decided not to exercise an option for 2017 delivery, which had been an option good for either a Quantum or Reflection class ship. RCCL is still mulling an option for a 2018 delivery of a fourth Oasis class ship, and we expect a decision on that in 1H this year.

There are many if’s here, however there may be some validity to it. I doubt they’d go back to STX Finland, however the loss of the 3rd Oasis’s  contract to France was devastating to the local economy in Finland. I’d give it 60/40 on returning to France.

There’s no question that the Oasis class have been a success. They still command a nice premium and have many unique sources of on board revenue. The issue is passenger sourcing. The third one enters service in summer 2016. Its been widely speculated that Port Canaveral and Miami will make a strong push for an Oasis call vessel. If a fourth one is ordered, both ports could wind up with one-a-piece. However, at 6,296pax max capacity of each ship to fill every week (18,888 across 3 vessels and 25,184 across 4) that seems like a difficult task when positioned in the highly competitive Florida market. Sourcing will be difficult and the premiums may fall just to fill up the ships.